Horse Art
Posted in Figurines & Animals on 03/13/2010 09:07 pm by adminHorse Art
Exacta Underlays Are The Key To Profits On Favorites In Horse Racing Handicapping
We've all had the experience of picking a horse to win but getting such lousy odds on it that we pass it by, figuring it is not a value bet. Then, when the horse wins, it hurts to know that we passed up cashing, even though we realize that we must stick to value bets or eventually lose our bankroll.
I will always advocate insisting on value in a bet. Indeed, I'll go one step farther. The art of making profits on horse races is the art of handicapping combined with the business of identifying value in wagers. Without finding value, you are only solving half the puzzle. While handicapping and picking winners is fun, it can be expensive fun if you don't discipline yourself to only bet on horses that are undervalued by the crowd.
The favorite wins about a third of the races, but betting to win on favorites is a losing proposition. If you like a horse to win, but can't find value in the win pool, you can still put your handicapping skill to good use and perhaps, find value in the exacta pools. The crowd focuses on the favorite and the obvious choices for second. Typically, there will be a few exactas that are over bet, but that means there will also be underlays in the pool.
The most obvious way to find value is to find the horse that is the second favorite in the exacta pool, in other words, the lowest paying exacta with the favorite, and to determine if that horse deserves to be the second favorite and if it is over bet. In other words, if you can't eliminate the favorite in the race, can you eliminate the second favorite?
There is no reliable formula that I know of to accurately determine fair value in an exacta, though many have tried. I think that practice and experience are the two keys to knowing what a good price is in the exacta pool.
Of course, this all depends upon your ability to determine that the favorite really does deserve all the action it is taking and that requires experience, as well.
About the Author
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill's handicapping store.
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My Digital Horse Art